What Is Really Happening in Lebanon?

Brad DeLong asks the following question regarding the current affairs in Lebanon:

What are we doing in Lebanon? Is expelling the Syrians from Lebanon best understood as promoting Lebanese democracy or as setting the stage for the accession to power of Hezbollah?

Juan Cole asks a rhetorical question which seems to indicate a response leaning towards something like the latter:

Will a Lebanon left to its own devices to negotiate a social compact between [minority] rightwing Christians and Shiite Hizbullah really be an island of stability?